2022-2023 MVP Value Picks

When thinking through potential candidates for the Hart Trophy this year, the usual suspects readily come to mind: McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, Makar, Shesterkin. Not only are they the absolute best players in the world, they have also all taken home hardware recently—and seem primed to do so again. But in commanding most of the attention, these players create value for others who are hopefully being offered at long odds. And who better to walk you through your options than the guy who nabbed Matthews at +700 last year? (I'll give you a hint: not Chase.)

Disclaimer: The feasibility of any bet depends on the line you get. I'll provide the lines my book is offering as a benchmark, but keep in mind that my book sucks and shouldn't be used as a benchmark. Bettors should shop around and look for the best deal possible.‍

     1. Barkov (+2800):

‍This guy was a two-way animal after returning from injury last year, and would have been a Hart finalist if not for two factors. First, he missed 15 games due to injury, which is a shade too many to stay in the running. Secondly, his buddy Huberdeau tied for second most points in the league, and if you can't even outshine your own teammates, you don't have much of a chance.

But Huberdeau is gone now—and almost certainly won't replicate his production from last year anyway—and although Barkov doesn't have the greatest track record of putting together full seasons, I wouldn't call him injury-prone, either.

Another factor in his favor is the slow-moving, but inevitable, shift in public opinion to include more advanced stats, including defensive ones. There's no doubt in my mind that these helped push Matthews over the edge last year, despite him missing some games and falling outside the top five point-getters. Plenty of puff pieces on Matthews mentioned things like "points per 60," "goals per 60," "even-strength points," and "Corsi," whereas traditionally this award falls to whoever has the most points plus some other arbitrary accolade, like being on the league's best team (or a team that just squeaks into the playoffs), being flashy, or even being of North American background. But the culture is moving to replace these traditional metrics with better ones.

Last year, Barkov produced at a top-ten point-per-game clip, so he clearly has the capacity to build a traditional résumé. What is especially intriguing about him, though, is that he's long had advanced metrics on his side. He is, as the saying goes, "a darling of the advanced metrics community." So if he puts up another strong season on what should be a playoff team—absent Huberdeau this time—he should finally get the recognition that has for so long been simmering on him.

     2. MacKinnon (+1150):

The argument for MacKinnon is simple: he's been a runner-up in 3 of the last 5 years. Last year, he missed some time due to injury and was somewhat overshadowed by Kadri's career year. But Mac has a strong history of full seasons, and now Kadri is playing elsewhere (see a similar theme emerging?). And despite not even being the best player on his team (see: Makar), MacKinnon is competing for what has traditionally been a forward's award. A forward-who-scores-a-lot-of-points award. With the Avs as a top-5 scoring team in each of the last three seasons, who better than the guy most likely to pace them? (This bet is based on the assumption that Makar's line for MVP will be stiffer than MacKinnon's, but depending on the lines, it might be wise to avoid both players.)  

     3. Sorokin (not even listed):

‍Voters had their appetite whetted last year for a goalie to take the award. The possibility, then probability, entered their minds at some point last season, pretty much right before Shesterkin did everything he could to blow it. Then Matthews hit 60 and it was all she wrote.

Shesty went on to swivel heads in the playoffs, and thus most casual bettors will be thinking—hey, if a goalie wins, it will definitely be Shesterkin. But not so fast. Go back to the stats and double-click into another Russian goaltender, Ilya Sorokin. He didn't receive much chatter because, for a variety of strange reasons, the Islanders were out of the playoff race early. Yet on both traditional and advanced metrics, Sorokin was right behind Shesterkin.

GAA:
     Shesterkin: 2.07
     Sorokin: 2.40

SV%:
     Shesterkin: .935
     Sorokin: .925

Shutouts:
     Shesterkin: 6
     Sorokin: 7

GAR (goals saved above replacement):
     Shesterkin: 50
     Sorokin: 40

WAR (wins above replacement):
     Shesterkin: 9
     Sorokin: 7

While Shesty was in a league of his own last year, Sorokin was close enough that if Shesty falters this year, or gets hurt, or the Rangers miss the playoffs, Sorokin will be there to scoop up the award. Furthermore, he'll have the narrative of turning a team around that missed the playoffs the year prior and then lost the league's best coach in Barry Trotz. Not to mention, there aren't any other superstars on that team likely to overshadow him.

Honorable Mentions:

• Kucherov: his only problem is that he doesn't like playing regular season games.
• Drais: all he needs is McDavid to get hurt for circa 10+ games.
• Kaprisov: he's listed at +1150 in my book—the same as MacKinnon—which means the hype train has already reached his station, sadly.

How To Bet: Now that you have some horses in the stable, there is still the question of when and how to ride them. Obviously, this article is coming out at the beginning of the season, so you have the option of betting now. But personally, I have had the most success when the season is around half-over. Specifically, at that magical moment when the betting public is still refusing to believe what its eyes are telling them. For example, I placed a bet on Matthews last season at +700 sometime in January. He was having a strong season already, but the public was liking Huberdeau (leading point-getter) and McDavid (for obvious reasons) much more. It was pretty easy to see Huberdeau losing ground to McDavid in points and getting overshadowed a bit by Barkov, though, and it was conceivable at the time that the Oilers would miss playoffs. Thus, Matthews @ +700 seemed like a great bet to me.

I've never preferred betting before the season because so much can go wrong off the bat. My recommendation would be to bide your time with these players. Ideally, one of them plays well—but not too well—in the first half of the season. You then get a juicy line with an inside track...and pounce. That said, if you want to sprinkle a little something before the season, I'd be looking into Barkov. There's no way the Panthers miss playoffs and little chance anyone else on that team overshadows him. If there's a wager to be made now, it's on him.