Power Rankings & Games We’re Betting (01/02)
Total YTD Stats: Record 19-11, P&L of $702 or 15% ROI (1)
Ok so the wives didn’t get Christmas presents. We went 5-5 overall, which unfortunately ended up being dilutive to returns as we lost $39 or a (3%) ROI. The favorites again did most of the heavy lifting going 4-1. They continue to act as a source of capital, giving us a few shots on goal each week to take big dogs in advantageous spots. We had Ducks (+182) drop one in OT, and I’m not even going to mention the two-goal lead the Jets (+197) ended up pissing away in Boston. My conviction remains high that we will start getting some of these dogs through and then maybe, just maybe, we can stop sleeping on the couch.
To especially observant readers, you may be wondering why we didn’t issue the power rankings and picks last week. By my eyes, hockey—difficult enough to predict already—tends to get even more unpredictable after long layoffs. (Stay tuned: we will have a strategy for you guys following the All-Star break in February). False positives can erode our returns, so we reluctantly put our pencils down and just watched. (Imagine the boredom.)
I ran the model late Sunday night after the games, the results of which all seemed fairly predictable (good sign) outside of the Kraken laying an absolute smackdown on the Isles (bad sign). The pencil is now firmly back in our hands for this week.
This week, we are going to try a new “deep dive” format, where we take a longer look at one of the model’s out-of-consensus calls. Let us know your feedback!
The Florida Panthers—the team, not the endangered species—find themselves in our cross-hairs as the fade candidate of the week. Last year, this team could do no wrong, winning the Presidents Trophy and producing a few major standout performances from Huberdeau, Reinhart and, of course, Barkov up front. Weegar announced himself as a force on the backend and Ekblad was on pace for a career year before it was cut short by injury. This year, however, it’s a bit of a different story. With Weegar gone, there is almost no situation where Marc Staal (slow), Radko Guduas (slower) or a hobbled Ekblad isn’t on the ice. The Puddy Tats are learning the hard lesson that playing a fast, skilled game really begins with the personnel on defense. With a major style-of-play pivot unlikely, and a severely impaired D corps, we are betting that not even the great Barkov can save this team from being mounted on the wall.
Power Rankings – Week beginning January 2nd:
This week, here are the sides the model has identified as actionable:
Stay tuned for a recap of the action and the latest Power Rankings from Along the Ice next week!
Chaser
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(1) P&L and ROI tracked using Action Network. P&L assumes wagers are to win $100 per hypothetical bet.
