Power Rankings and Games We're Betting—All-Star Hangover Edition

Total YTD Stats: Record 41-31, P&L of $855 or 8% ROI ⁽¹⁾

Bookies certainly weren’t going down without a fight. After we praised the Avs, they dropped a game as eye-watering -400 favorites, and that was just the start of our troubles. All told, we went 2 for 8 and lost $576 dollars in the process. Worst week of the season, which thankfully is a distant memory now. Let’s focus on the positives. 

One of our (two) winning sides was the +320 Blackhawks. A tremendous accomplishment to identify and cash these mega-dogs, and it will continue to be a hallmark of our strategy. And, of course, we have the numbers on our side. A $100 dollar bettor is now sitting on just over $850 bucks. Not bad. But best of all, we have my favorite week of the entire season on deck. The “cheat code” of NHL betting, if you will. In fact, the few nights after the NHL All-Star Game provide one of the most compelling edges in all pro sports. Let me fill you in.

I normally don’t play over/unders, as I think many times you end up in the precarious position of sweating empty netters. But following the All-Star break, which is typically characterized by a layoff of nearly a week, it’s the only thing I play. It would be natural to think scoring touch or chemistry diminishes and thus unders would cash at an above-average rate while sloppy play dominates. But believe it or not, the opposite is true.    

The All-Star hangover is real. Except seemingly only for the defensive side of the game. Since 2016, looking at the first few nights (essentially the first 30 games) after the ASG, we observe scoring up around 10% compared to long-term averages. Amazingly, nearly 65% of the games result in a total of six goals or more and nearly half the games result in a total of seven goals or more. For the skeptics, this is a sample of 160 games. Ask ten people why this is and you will get ten different answers. I tend to agree with the folks that point to the effect the layoff has on goalies. But ultimately, I don’t really care why. 

While the rest of the betting underworld is drawing up ways to lose money on the Super Bowl, we are quietly going to line our pockets.
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Bets to make this week:

• Every single game over the total, Monday through Friday – 25 games / 25 bets / each at 2 units (or 50% of weekly allowance)
• Over grand salami, Monday through Friday – 5 bets / each at 5 units (or 25% of weekly allowance)
• Every single period over 1.5, Monday through Friday – 25 games / 75 bets / each 1/3^rd unit (or 25% of weekly allowance)
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Five days of open season on Vegas. Time to get ours. And please don’t lose it all on the Super Bowl!  

Next week we will be back to our normal Power Rankings and hopefully a victory lap on our big week of overs!

Chaser
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^{Disclaimer:  While we discuss betting on our website and offer suggestions, we do this entirely for editorial purposes and hobby enthusiasm. We do not conduct or promote gambling of any kind, nor do we claim to provide any knowledge as to the local laws regarding sports betting in the jurisdiction of our readers. By visiting our website, you confirm that you do not hold Along the Ice responsible for your gambling decisions or their results.}

_{(1) P&L and ROI tracked using Action Network. P&L assumes wagers are to win $100 per hypothetical bet.}