Power Rankings & Games We’re Betting (12/19)
Total YTD Stats: Record 14-6, P&L of $741 or 23% ROI (1)
If you’re anything like Kendrick Lamar, the holidays have to be extra stressful with all the women in your life. Big expectations from ladies that may not have picked up a Wall St Journal in the last year. In these tough times, gift budgets are already stretched worse than Cooke’s golf polo, and money isn’t going as far as people remember. Then again, most people don’t have a FREAKING MONEY PRINTER LIKE WE DO! That’s right, we reached right back in the bookies’ pockets and took whatever we needed for this holiday season. Two weeks in, two weeks up. Mistresses, check. Girlfriends, check. Here’s to hoping week three gets us enough to salvage something for the wives.
Ok let’s get into it. The model went 7-3 overall and, believe it or not, had a realistic shot at a perfect 10-0 had late leads not been squandered away in our three losses. Our favorites went 6-1 and our dogs went 1-2. A lazy criticism would be to say we are just backing big favorites—the sports-betting equivalent of picking up dimes in front of a steamroller—but I would remind you guys of a few important realities. So far, the model is winning at a 70% rate, which, when translated into a betting line equivalent, works out to a -230 line (on average). This season, through twenty bets, we’ve taken favorites at greater than -230 in only three instances, which suggests we are not taking undue risk to generate our returns. Like any PE shop, we are targeting a ROI of 20% (annualized). So far so good.
This week, we have to make our hay over a jam-packed schedule of games which conclude on Friday before the holiday recess. The model has flagged a few early season darlings (B’s and Devils) as fade candidates this week, along with the perennial bottom feeders, whose names all oddly enough have something to do with being anywhere but the bottom (Red Wings, Flyers, Blue Jackets and Blackhawks). Special shout out to the Hawks, who registered the worst score (226) the model has seen all season. They project to be in the bottom 10% of every one of the model’s key metrics. We should feel confident teeing off on them this week.
Power Rankings – Week beginning December 19th:
This week, here are the sides the model has identified as actionable:
Monday: BUF (+120 or better) over VGK, WAS over DET
Tuesday: TBL over TOR, CAR over NJD, SJS (+150 or better) over CGY
Wednesday: TBL over DET, NSH over CHI
Thursday: WPG (+120 or better) over BOS, NYR (-160 or better) over NYI
Friday: ANA (+150 or better) over CGY
Stay tuned for a recap of the action and the latest Power Rankings from Along the Ice next week!
Chaser
(1) P&L and ROI tracked using Action Network. P&L assumes wagers are to win $100 per hypothetical bet.
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