2023-2024 MVP Value Picks

What better way to kick off the new season than speculating about the MVP? We all know that someone is going to have a special season—probably a handful of players actually—we just don't know who. There are the usual suspects, of course. Or rather the usual suspect: McDavid. He's won 3 of the last 7 years, so odds on him are likely to be stingy. Surely your tried and trusted advisors at Along the Ice can steer you in a better direction? Find you some more value? Well, don't be so quick to agree. Before we do anything, let's take a look at how last year panned out.

Last year

If you'll recall, last year's picks were: Barkov, MacKinnon, and Sorokin. Now, let me get ahead of something. As readers no doubt saw, we went after Barkov in the playoffs last year. His lackluster play was difficult to watch and it quickly became clear that Tkachuk was leading that team. Actually, I think it's fair to say that everybody was leading the Panthers EXCEPT their captain. So, although Barkov had a decent regular season, I am still embarrassed by the pick, and I'd like to apologize to all and sundry.

I'm quite pleased with the MacKinnon and Sorokin picks, however, even though neither of them won. MacKinnon put up an absurd 1.56 points per game, trailing only Draisaitl and McDavid. He also notched 42 goals and was a +29. MacKinnon performed strongly on the advanced metrics side, as well. According to Evolving Hockey, he was third in Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) among all skaters in the regular season. What kept MacKinnon out of contention was the fact that he missed 11 games. Without that, he would have been right there with McDavid, and that's a scary thought given how special McD's season was.

As for Sorokin, sure, maybe picking a goalie for Hart was a bit of a stretch. (As you will see in a minute, I did not learn my lesson.) But boy oh boy, did the Russian netminder have a special campaign. In fact, according to The Hockey Writers, Sorokin "arguably submitted one of the best individual netminding seasons of the analytics era." What's crazy is that he didn't even win the Vezina—he came in second, behind Linus Ullmark—and for that, we can thank the fact that voters are still primarily influenced by traditional metrics, such as wins, save percentage, and GAA.

All in all, say what you want, but I'm pretty proud of those picks. Oh yeah, and I nabbed McD about a third of the way into the season for +200, so it all worked out for me. Didn't I tell you not to bet before the season? Having said that, let's get into it.

This year

Before I tell you where the value is this year, remember that the feasibility of any bet depends on the odds. I'll provide the lines my book is offering below, but my book sucks and shouldn't be used as a benchmark. Bettors should shop around and look for the best deal possible.

     1. Jack Hughes (+1550)

Hughes was a point shy of the century mark last year and cracked the top-10 in p/gp with 1.27. He's shown remarkable and steady improvement over his first four seasons. Personally, when I watch him play, I see a motor that few players can match, and an ability to process the game at a pace that could make him a perennial 100+ point-getter, especially if he's surrounded by talent—which he is. In fact, the Devils are earmarked for another strong season. It's very possible that they are sitting at the top of the standings when all is said and done, and Hughes will likely seem responsible for that success. With McDavid at -150 in my book, why not take a flier on a guy who is ready to explode?

     2. Igor Shesterkin (+8500)

Remember that my sportsbook is horrible. It offers the worst lines and I'm not sure why I even use it. That said, I trust that when it provides longer odds for Shesty than it does for Sorokin, other books are doing the same. Sorokin is +4500 in my book! What?

I'll let you in on a little secret. When it comes to picking MVPs, you need to recognize that an MVP-caliber season takes a chunk out of a guy. It's very difficult for someone to just get out of bed and do it all over again. Even if fatigue weren't a factor, you'd still have regression to the mean. Which is why these lines don't make any sense. Sorokin is a great goalie; Shesterkin is better. Sorokin just came off a Vezina-worthy season. Shesterkin didn't, and had plenty of time to rest. Finally, Shesty has the name recognition and plays in the Big Apple. Nobody really knows Sorokin still. And the Islanders? Come on.

     3. Leon Draisaitl (+1150)

When will this guy finally get his due? My sportsbook has him in the same ballpark as guys like Kaprisov, Hughes, and Robertson. Good players, those, but putting Drais among them makes absolutely no sense. Over the past five seasons, Drais ranks second in overall points with 80 (!) more than the guy behind him (MacKinnon, who cannot seem to escape third place). If McDavid goes down for ten games or more, Draisaitl becomes the front-runner for this race. Period. Not to mention he could legit put up 70 and steal it from underneath McDavid's nose, especially with a strong breeze of voter fatigue in McDavid's face.  

Meanwhile, the argument that Draisaitl is simply McDavid's wingman, and not a world-class player of his own, is no longer sustainable. This guy is a stud.

Honorable Mentions

Elias Pettersson (+4000): A good place to start when looking for MVP-value is a guy that has been getting better and better but hasn't quite hit the spotlight. That is the definition of Pettersson. It will be a shock to many readers that he ranked 4th among all skaters, right behind MacKinnon, for GAR and WAR last season. He also cracked the top-10 in scoring with 102 points in 80 games. The Canucks are the perfect team for a potential MVP candidate, too. They haven't made the playoffs in a few years and had a rough last season, but look every bit the part of the team that slips in at the last minute. (Anyone remember Taylor Hall?) My primary concern with Pettersson, though, is whether he can keep up with the big boys like Mac, McDavid, Draisaitl, Kucherov, and Pastrnak. 102 points is nice, but that was his career-high by a long shot, and he likely needs to find another gear.

Kucherov (+1550): As I'll argue in a full-length article soon, we have to give Kucherov credit for being the best skater over the last five years. Simply put, nobody has accomplished what he has in that span. One side-effect of his success is that he and his teammates have played a lot of meaningful games. Tampa should be much more rested this year, beginning with Vasey and ending with Kuch. That means more wins, and a legitimate shot for the guy likely to be leading them in points to come home with some hardware.

Over and out,
Josh

‍